Sunday, September 25, 2011

UF-UK, OSU and Week 3 Picks

I missed the UF-UK game, but to no one's surprise UF won big. I looked at the stats and asked someone if it was actually closer than it seemed as UK possessed the ball longer, UF converted 5 third downs to UK's 4, and UF has 5 penalties to UK's 2. My hopes at rationalizing the loss based off of UF breaking a couple of big plays was laughed off. I was told it wasn't even as close as the 48-10 score suggested. Sigh.

Had a chance to go to the Colorado-OSU game. True freshman QB Braxton Miller could make some noise in his career as a Buckeye...until he gets busted for receiving improper benefits. The atmosphere was great, even if the game wasn't. Though, it wasn't hard to tell that OSU fans are less than pleased with new coach Luke Fickell thus far.

Picks.

Houston over New Orleans
If Houston is serious about making some hay this season, they win this game. Should be an exciting one either way.

Philadelphia over New York Giants
I think more big plays hit here, rather than miss with that depleted Giants secondary. I agree with you in saying Philly wins, and it probably won't be that close.

Carolina over Jacksonville
Cam throwing for 800 some odd yards in his first couple of starts is cool, but it appears Carolina is changing the style of their offense to be a pass first-pass second. That's fine...if you hadn't just shelled out big money to Deangelo Williams, and have more than one decent WR. I think Carolina could actually win a couple of games this season if they scale Cam's passing back and use Williams/Stewart while they are both healthy. When one/both inevitably goes down, let Cam sling it.

Buffalo over New England
I don't know why but I can just see Stevie Johnson screaming "Nobody believed in us! Not one person outside this locker room believed in this team!" at his press conference after the game.

Miami over Cleveland
I'd rather watch the Miami Marlins play the Cleveland Indians than this.

Cincinnati over San Francisco
I'd pick Cincy by a decent margin if this were at home. It's not, but I still think we get the win.

Tennessee over Denver
I think Chris Johnson goes crazy here. A "16 carries, 202 yards, 2 TD" type of day. Tim Tebow continues his ascent to "Easy Ed McCaffrey" status.

Detroit over Minnesota
There's no way to get Barry Sanders involved on this team, is there? It's not fair it took this long for Detroit to field a decent squad.

Baltimore over St. Louis
The respect Ray Lewis still gets as a "Top 10 player in this league" is mind-boggling.

NY Jets over Oakland
Sanchez has finally turned the corner, baby. He only has 3 INT's and a fumble this season, down from last years numbers of 14 INT's and 6 fumbles through two games last season. All numbers approximate.

San Diego over Kansas City
If only Berry/Charles gotten hurt before the season, KC would have an excuse for their terrible play.

Arizona over Seattle
Kolb should have a great day here. That's about it.

Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Atlanta fans are again convinced this is a Super Bowl team after the win against Philly. Freeman and Gang put the ix-nay on that.

Green Bay over Chicago
Cutler is getting murdered out there. His starting running back is a better receiver than runner. His top receiver is Roy Williams. His line is atrocious. And this kid has diabetes. Type 1 at that! See world? You no good.

Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Seems like just yesterday this would have been an excellent game. Not the case today.

Dallas over Washington
Maybe Shanahan deserves a little credit here. I haven't heard much about Haynesworth in NE, McNabb looks bad and Rex has looked surprisingly competent. They'll still lose here, but I see you Shanahan, you crazy bastard.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 3

I just back back from the UK/Florida game.  I can't tell if the Gators looked that good, or if the Cats looked that bad.  I think it was a little of both.
On the rare occasion that I go to a game, I'm always shocked by the stats I see afterwards.  Demps looked fantastic (and he had a long touchdown run), but I was still surprised to see his line of "10 rushes, 157 yards, 2TDs".  Brantley looked solid, and they seemed to move the ball pretty well with him in the game.  So his line of "8/14, 115 yards, 1 TD" seemed extremely low.

On to the picks:

New Orleans over Houston
Lots of passing yards.  Lots of points.  Hopefully this game will come down to the last couple of minutes.  I think this could be a dynamite game.

Philadelphia over New York Giants
But more because I think the Giants look terrible than I think the Eagles look good.  From what I've seen so far, the Eagles look like they could break a big play at any moment...but they also have a lot of plays where they don't really seem in sync.  Still, they should beat the Giants with relative ease.

Carolina over Jacksonville
If the Panthers can slow down the Jaguars running game, they'll win this game.  Also, the Jaguars defense isn't great.  If the Panthers choose to throw a lot this game, Newton could have another huge day.

New England over Buffalo
In a shootout?  Sure.  Neither defense looks good, and both offenses are rolling.  I'll take the Patriots in a game that ends up being 42-35 or something like that.

Miami over Cleveland
I have no interest in watching this game.

Cincinnati over San Francisco
On top of the whole "West Coast team comes to the East Coast" thing, I like what I saw out of Dalton last week.  Green also looked terrific.  It may not be pretty, but I think the Bengals will take this one.

Tennessee over Denver
I may take back what I said about the Titans being a terrible team, but I won't take back what I said about Hasselbeck.  If he keeps it up for a couple more weeks, I may have to.  But, for now, I'm standing pat.  Still, I think the Titans will get the running game going, and will do just enough to win.

Detroit over Minnesota
If they roll over the Vikings, I may have to start getting scared of the Lions.  Stafford is still sailing a lot of passes, but, if he throws them in the direction of Calvin Johnson, they're more likely to get caught.

Baltimore over St. Louis
The Ravens are mad about the game last week.  The Rams look like a terrible team.  This will not be pretty.

Oakland over New York Jets
I have a feeling that the Raiders will get their running game going in this one.  Between that and Jason Campbell looking kind of not terrible recently, I think the Raiders will win this.

San Diego over Kansas City
The write-up I used for the Baltimore/St. Louis game applies here.

Arizona over Seattle
How bad do the Seahawks look right now?

Atlanta over Tampa Bay
This one should come down to the wire.  As long as Ryan doesn't try to force too many passes into Ghoulio Jones, they should have enough to win this.

Green Bay over Chicago
Jay Cutler was almost killed last week.  Now he has to face a Packers team that also likes to bring pressure (and they have the personnel to get pressure without bringing too many guys).  Cutler gets knocked around quite a bit in this game, and almost doesn't come out of the locker room after halftime.

Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Yikes.

Washington over Dallas
The Cowboys just have too many injuries.  Also, Grossman is looking not terrible so far.

Monday, September 19, 2011

A Few Quick Thoughts

I love this picture.



Who knew that Larry Merchant was 80? He doesn't look a day over 77.

I'm officially excited for the Andy Dalton era. He looked solid against the Browns and outstanding against Denver. Jerome Simpson and AJ Green each went over 120 yards, and he did it without the benefit of a running game. He doesn't force passes, reads defenses well and can get out of trouble with his legs. In short, he's already better than Carson Palmer.

The one thing I took away from the Eagles-Falcons game? How good Mike Kafka looked. Big fan of his work.

Sorry to hear about Nick Collins. He's not in the same league as Collins as a player, but Jordan Shipley is out for the year as well. Sucks.

Going at Charles Woodson eventually paid its price, but man did Newton look good on that first drive yesterday. Obviously, the more he throws for 400 yards, the more Carolina probably loses but if he can find that balance between passing and looking to run, watch out. Thank goodness Carolina didn't hurt it's potential cap space by spending millions to lock up the core of a 2 win team or giving $43 million to a 28 year old running back that played in 6 games last season.